For most of the modern era, the world’s economic gravity was in a small set of places — the industrial heartlands of the developed economies. The growth, the capital and the attention flowed to those centers, and the rest of the world was the periphery.
That geography is shifting. The regions that were once the periphery are emerging as the world’s new growth engines, and the map of the global economy is being redrawn around them.
The shift of the gravity
The center of economic gravity is moving, and the movement is measurable.
The growth of the emerging economies has outpaced the developed world for years, and the compounding is the shift: the share of the global output held by the once-peripheral regions is rising, and the rise is the redrawing. The gravity of the global economy is moving toward the regions where the people, the growth and increasingly the investment are — and the movement is structural, not cyclical.
This is why the shift matters: it is the reordering of the global economy, and the reordering is the new map.
The demography of the growth
The new engines are driven, in part, by the demography — the people of the growth.
The regions with the young populations have the workforce of the future; the regions with the aging populations face the constraint. The demography is the deep driver: the people are the market, the labor and the energy of the growth. The regions with the demographic dividend are the regions with the growth’s raw material, and the dividend is being spent now.
This is why the demography matters: it is the growth’s foundation, and the foundation is the people.
The manufacturing shift
The manufacturing of the world is shifting toward the new engines, and the shift is the industrial redrawing.
The factories that once clustered in the developed heartlands are spreading to the regions where the costs and the capabilities combine — the lower wages, the rising skills and the growing markets. The manufacturing shift is the creation of new industrial regions, and the creation is the transformation. The goods of the world are increasingly made in the places that were once the periphery.
This is why the manufacturing matters: it is the industrial foundation of the new engines, and the foundation is the growth.
The services and the digital
The new engines are also building the services and the digital, and the building is the leap.
The services that were once the developed world’s domain — the finance, the software, the design, the support — are being built in the new regions, often in their newest forms. The digital is the leapfrog: the mobile, the platform and the service built where the old infrastructure was absent. The services and the digital are the new engines’ second industry, and the second is the diversification.
This is why the services matter: they are the new engines’ future, and the future is being built on the leap.
The capital flows
The capital is following the growth, and the following is the reinforcement.
The investment that once flowed to the developed centers is flowing increasingly to the new engines — the equity, the infrastructure and the manufacturing. The capital is the growth’s fuel, and the fuel is being redirected by the returns. The regions that grow attract the capital, and the capital feeds the growth. The reinforcement is the cycle, and the cycle is the new engines’ engine.
This is why the capital matters: it is the growth’s reinforcement, and the reinforcement is the shift’s momentum.
The challenges of the rise
The rise of the new engines is not smooth, and the challenges are part of the story.
The growth brings the strains — the infrastructure that lags, the institutions that must be built, the inequality that the fast growth creates. The new engines are not the smooth replicas of the old; they are the rougher versions, with the work of the development still underway. The challenges are the new engines’ tests, and the tests are the shaping of their futures.
This is why the challenges matter: they are the work of the rise, and the work is the new engines’ defining.
The honest conclusion
The regions emerging as the world’s new growth engines are the redrawing of the global map, and the redrawing is underway.
The shift of the gravity, the demography of the growth, the manufacturing shift, the services and the digital, the capital flows and the challenges of the rise — the once-peripheral regions are becoming the engines, and the becoming is the transformation.
The center of economic gravity is moving, and the movement is not a rebalancing of the old order but the creation of a new one. The regions that were once the periphery are now the growth, and the growth is reshaping the world’s economy. The new engines are emerging, and their rise is the story of the coming decades — the map being redrawn, the gravity moving and the future being built in the regions that were once the edge.